83% — How high will unemployment get before 2030
Leader: Above 5% at 83% · Kalshi 83% · 11 contracts · $798 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 06:43:47 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 11 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract prices the probability that U.S. unemployment will reach a certain threshold before the end of 2029. The current 92% price on the leading contract suggests high market confidence in elevated joblessness occurring within this timeframe. Key drivers include economic growth rates, Federal Reserve policy decisions, and labor market resilience. The pricing reflects ongoing uncertainty about recession timing and severity—a sustained slowdown or sharp contraction would likely push unemployment higher, while robust job creation would pressure the probability lower. Monthly employment reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, released on the first Friday of each month, will provide the most direct data point for evaluating labor market conditions. The Federal Reserve's interest-rate trajectory and inflation persistence will heavily influence whether the unemployment threshold gets breached.

Key factors:
- Monthly nonfarm payroll changes and unemployment rate reports determine actual jobless levels against contract thresholds
- Federal Reserve interest-rate policy and inflation dynamics affect recession risk and labor demand through 2029
- Current labor force participation rates and wage growth patterns indicate slack in the job market or tightness
- Historical correlation between GDP growth forecasts and unemployment suggests recession probability is priced into the 92% level
- Competing economic contracts show 76% confidence in inflation above 4% in 2026, suggesting stagflation concerns underpin unemployment expectations

Contracts:
- How high will unemployment get before 2030?: Above 5% — 83¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- How high will unemployment get before 2030?: Above 6% — 78¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- How high will unemployment get before 2030?: Above 7% — 66¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- How high will unemployment get before 2030?: Above 8% — 54¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- How high will unemployment get before 2030?: Above 9% — 42¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- How high will unemployment get before 2030?: Above 10% — 28¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- How high will unemployment get before 2027?: Above 5% — 24¢ Kalshi $448 (weight 56%)
- How high will unemployment get before 2030?: Above 12% — 21¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 3 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T06:20:50.093Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "83% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/u3max
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=How%20high%20will%20unemployment%20get%20before%202030
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev