90% — How high will unemployment get before 2030
Leader: Above 5% at 90% · Kalshi 90% · 14 contracts · $904 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-24 01:26:01 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 14 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 88% probability indicates high confidence that unemployment will reach at least the level specified in the leading contract before 2030. The markets are pricing in elevated recession risk or economic slowdown over the next few years. Key factors driving this assessment include current labor market conditions, Federal Reserve policy trajectory, and historical recession patterns. The most significant near-term catalyst will be monthly jobs reports and GDP data releases, which provide real-time signals about labor demand and economic health. Any major shift in inflation or interest-rate expectations could substantially move these probabilities, as would unexpected geopolitical or financial events that alter growth forecasts.

Key factors:
- Current unemployment rate relative to historical averages and the specific threshold in the leading contract
- Federal Reserve's interest-rate policy stance and market expectations for rate cuts or hikes through 2030
- Leading economic indicators such as initial jobless claims, yield curve signals, and consumer confidence data
- Historical frequency and severity of recessions within 3-4 year windows and their typical unemployment peaks
- Upcoming employment reports and quarterly GDP releases that will provide direct evidence for or against unemployment rising above the contracted threshold

Contracts:
- How high will unemployment get before 2030?: Above 5% — 90¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- How high will unemployment get before 2030?: Above 6% — 80¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- How high will unemployment get before 2030?: Above 7% — 67¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- How high will unemployment get before 2030?: Above 9% — 47¢ Kalshi $8 (weight 1%)
- How high will unemployment get before 2030?: Above 10% — 36¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- How high will unemployment get before 2030?: Above 8% — 35¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- How high will unemployment get before 2030?: Above 12% — 26¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- How high will unemployment get before 2027?: Above 4.5% — 21¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 1%)
- ... and 6 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-24T01:20:52.222Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "90% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/u3max
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=How%20high%20will%20unemployment%20get%20before%202030
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev