95% — Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 41 million passengers in Q1 2026 Leader: Above 45 million at 95% · Kalshi 95% · 10 contracts · $244 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 15:23:30 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 10 outcomes. Why this matters: Markets currently estimate a 91% probability that United Airlines will report above 45 million passengers in Q2 2026. This represents strong confidence in sustained passenger demand at United's scale during the second quarter. The probability reflects two main dynamics: historical passenger volumes at major U.S. carriers typically exceed 45 million in Q2 due to peak summer travel season, and United's recent operational performance suggests capacity to handle elevated demand. However, the market shows declining confidence for higher thresholds—only 50% confidence in exceeding 48 million passengers—indicating uncertainty about capacity constraints or demand softness. The contract will resolve when United reports Q2 2026 earnings, expected in late July or early August 2026. Key variables analysts are monitoring include actual booking trends through June, fuel costs affecting pricing strategies, and any operational disruptions that could reduce available seat-miles. Key factors: - Seasonal demand patterns: Q2 historically shows peak leisure travel, typically driving major carrier passenger volumes above 45 million when capacity is sufficient - Capacity management: United's fleet size and staffing levels in Q2 2026 will directly constrain maximum achievable passengers - Competitive pricing environment: Airfare levels and load factors depend on industry-wide capacity relative to demand, affecting whether 45 million is reached - Operational reliability: Maintenance issues, staffing shortages, or weather disruptions could reduce available flights and passenger throughput - Economic sensitivity: Recession, unemployment changes, or discretionary spending weakness between now and Q2 would reduce leisure and business travel demand Contracts: - Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 45 million passengers in Q2 2026?: Above 45 million — 95¢ Kalshi $24 (weight 10%) - Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 45.5 million passengers in Q2 2026?: Above 45.5 million — 89¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 46 million passengers in Q2 2026?: Above 46 million — 88¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 46.5 million passengers in Q2 2026?: Above 46.5 million — 85¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 47 million passengers in Q2 2026?: Above 47 million — 83¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 47.5 million passengers in Q2 2026?: Above 47.5 million — 80¢ Kalshi $166 (weight 68%) - Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 48 million passengers in Q2 2026?: Above 48 million — 55¢ Kalshi $53 (weight 22%) - Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 48.5 million passengers in Q2 2026?: Above 48.5 million — 23¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 2 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T15:20:49.600Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "95% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ual Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20United%20Airlines%20Holdings%20Inc.%20report%20Above%2041%20million%20passengers%20in%20Q1%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev