95% — Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 178 million passengers flown in 2026
Leader: Above 180 million at 95% · Kalshi 95% · 7 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-29 03:54:27 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Markets are pricing an 89% chance that United Airlines will carry more than 178 million passengers in 2026. This threshold sits slightly below United's 2019 peak of 180 million passengers, suggesting traders expect the airline to recover to near pre-pandemic levels by year-end. The high probability reflects post-pandemic demand recovery and United's operational capacity, though airlines remain sensitive to fuel prices, economic recession, and capacity adjustments. The contract probability declines as thresholds rise—87% for 180 million, 82% for 182 million—indicating declining confidence in stronger-than-baseline performance. Resolution depends on United's official 2026 passenger report, typically published in January or February 2027 alongside annual earnings.

Key factors:
- United carried 180 million passengers in 2019; 178 million represents 99% of that pre-pandemic peak
- Current year-to-date passenger trends and load factors through Q2 2026 determine achievability
- Fuel price environment, macroeconomic growth, and domestic/international demand mix affect airline capacity decisions
- Probability gradient (89% at 178M, 55% at 186M) suggests market uncertainty above 180 million passengers
- Actual resolution waits for United's official 2026 annual passenger report in early 2027

Contracts:
- Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 180 million passengers flown in 2026?: Above 180 million — 95¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 178 million passengers flown in 2026?: Above 178 million — 94¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 182 million passengers flown in 2026?: Above 182 million — 89¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 184 million passengers flown in 2026?: Above 184 million — 77¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 186 million passengers flown in 2026?: Above 186 million — 51¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 188 million passengers flown in 2026?: Above 188 million — 27¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 190 million passengers flown in 2026?: Above 190 million — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-29T03:20:50.891Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "95% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/uala
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20United%20Airlines%20Holdings%20Inc.%20report%20Above%20178%20million%20passengers%20flown%20in%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev