78% — UEFA Europa Conference League
Leader: Most Assists: Carlo Holse at 78% · Polymarket 78% · 20 contracts · $524 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 06:41:01 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 20 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The 95% probability indicates that traders believe Crystal Palace has a very high likelihood of reaching the UEFA Europa Conference League final. This reflects Palace's current tournament position and remaining fixture difficulty relative to other contenders. The probability is driven primarily by Palace's competitive strength in their semifinal matchup and the relative weakness of remaining opponents. Volume concentration in the reaching-final contract ($91 in 24h volume) suggests active trading around Palace's semifinal progression. The next major catalyst will be the completion of Palace's semifinal tie, which would either confirm their advancement or dramatically shift probabilities toward Strasbourg, Rayo Vallecano, or other alternatives currently priced lower.

Key factors:
- Crystal Palace's semifinal opponent strength and current form relative to other qualified teams
- The 33-point gap between the reach-final contract (95¢) and the outright winner contract (62¢) indicates substantial uncertainty about Palace winning the tournament once there
- Strasbourg and Rayo Vallecano combined trade at only 101¢ for reaching the final, suggesting they are heavily discounted relative to Palace
- Trading volume of $91 in 24 hours concentrated on the reach-final outcome indicates this is the primary uncertainty being priced
- Palace's semifinal result represents the immediate binary event that would most significantly alter the probability landscape

Contracts:
- UEFA Europa Conference League: Most Assists: Carlo Holse — 78¢ Polymarket $60 (weight 11%)
- UEFA Europa Conference League: Winner: Crystal Palace — 64¢ Polymarket $347 (weight 66%)
- UEFA Europa Conference League: Top Scorer: Ismaïla Sarr — 51¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- UEFA Europa Conference League: Most Red Cards: Pep Chavarría — 49¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- UEFA Europa Conference League: Most Red Cards: Joseph Mbong — 49¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- UEFA Europa Conference League: Most Cards: Borna Sosa — 49¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- UEFA Europa Conference League: Most Cards: Pathé Ismaël Ciss — 49¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- UEFA Europa Conference League: Most Cards: Pep Chavarría — 49¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 12 more

Cite as: "78% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/uefa-europa-conference-league
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=UEFA%20Europa%20Conference%20League
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev