8% — Will England win the 2028 UEFA Euros Kalshi 8% · 11 contracts · $339 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-27 07:06:41 UTC Why this matters: The 15% probability reflects market pricing for England to win the 2028 UEFA Euros, a tournament held once every four years and scheduled for 2028. England's implied odds place them as a mid-tier contender, below favorites like Spain and Germany based on available market data. The current valuation likely reflects England's recent tournament performances—reaching the Euro 2024 final and the 2020 Euro final—balanced against squad composition changes, player aging, and competitive depth in European football. Key uncertainties include injury trajectories of core players, managerial continuity, and how squad development compares to rival nations over the next 18 months. The 2028 Euros themselves will serve as the resolution event, though significant shifts could occur during qualifying matches, winter transfer windows, and international friendlies leading up to June 2028. Key factors: - England's current squad age and expected form in 2028, particularly for players central to recent tournament runs like Harry Kane, Declan Rice, and Jude Bellingham - Managerial stability and tactical adaptation; Gareth Southgate's departure and successor's track record will influence tournament preparation and strategy - Injury prevalence among key players during the 2027-28 season, which directly impacts squad availability and match fitness entering the tournament - Spain and Germany showing lower trading prices (10¢) suggests market consensus they are stronger favorites; relative strength of competing nations affects England's winning probability - England's performance in 2026 World Cup qualifying matches and 2027 friendlies will provide concrete data on form and player development, potentially shifting market probabilities substantially Contracts: - Will Spain win the 2028 UEFA Euros?: Spain — 17¢ Kalshi $183 (weight 54%) - Will England win the 2028 UEFA Euros?: England — 16¢ Kalshi $110 (weight 33%) - Will France win the 2028 UEFA Euros?: France — 13¢ Kalshi $35 (weight 10%) - Will Italy win the 2028 UEFA Euros?: Italy — 3¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 2%) - Will Portugal win the 2028 UEFA Euros?: Portugal — 7¢ Kalshi $4 (weight 1%) - Will Poland win the 2028 UEFA Euros?: Poland — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Netherlands win the 2028 UEFA Euros?: Netherlands — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Germany win the 2028 UEFA Euros?: Germany — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 3 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-27T06:20:50.566Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "8% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/uefaeuro Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20England%20win%20the%202028%20UEFA%20Euros Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev