44% — Aston Villa at Nottingham
Kalshi 44% · 20 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-13 06:48:52 UTC

Why this matters:
The 30% probability indicates that market participants estimate a roughly 1-in-3 chance that Aston Villa will win the match at Nottingham. The goal-scoring contract prices—with over 1.5 goals priced around 63-70% and over 2.5 goals at 37%—suggest markets expect a moderately competitive match with moderate scoring. The primary drivers of this probability are the teams' recent form, head-to-head records, and home-field advantage for Nottingham. The match outcome will be determined once the fixture is played; the date and exact timing of the match is the key catalyst that will resolve this uncertainty. Current contract volume shows minimal 24-hour activity, indicating limited recent trading interest in these specific outcomes.

Key factors:
- Aston Villa's league position and recent win-loss record relative to Nottingham Forest's defensive performance
- Nottingham's home advantage and historical performance at their venue against comparable opponents
- Injury status and lineup availability for both teams at the time of match kickoff
- Goal-scoring expectations embedded in related contracts suggest 2-3 goals are most likely, implying defensive solidity rather than offensive dominance
- Low trading volume ($0 24h) indicates minimal new information has shifted market sentiment recently

Contracts:
- Will over 1.5 goals be scored?: Over 1.5 goals scored — 84¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%)
- Will over 2.5 goals be scored?: Over 2.5 goals scored — 69¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%)
- Will over 3.5 goals be scored?: Over 3.5 goals scored — 49¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%)
- Will over 4.5 goals be scored?: Over 4.5 goals scored — 28¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%)
- Will over 1.5 goals be scored?: Over 1.5 goals scored — 66¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%)
- Will over 2.5 goals be scored?: Over 2.5 goals scored — 47¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%)
- Will over 3.5 goals be scored?: Over 3.5 goals scored — 23¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%)
- Will over 4.5 goals be scored?: Over 4.5 goals scored — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-13T06:20:48.904Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "44% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ueltotal
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Aston%20Villa%20at%20Nottingham
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev