54% — Who will be the Bantamweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026
Leader: Petr Yan at 54% · Kalshi 54% · 3 contracts · $683 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-10 07:34:30 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The 21% probability indicates that one specific fighter is currently favored to hold the UFC Bantamweight title on December 31, 2026, though with substantial uncertainty across five potential contenders. The current leader's advantage likely reflects recent performance, ranking position, or recent title status, while the fragmented probabilities—with a runner-up at only 8%—suggest multiple viable paths to the title over the next seven months. Key factors driving this assessment include the current title holder's injury history and willingness to compete, the challenger pipeline's strength and fight scheduling, and the UFC's promotional decisions around booking and timing. Title fights are typically scheduled several months in advance, so the most significant near-term catalyst would be official fight announcements or injuries to current or leading contenders that would reshape the competitive landscape.

Key factors:
- Current bantamweight champion's injury status and stated competition timeline through December 2026
- Ranking and readiness of top challengers to secure and win a title shot within the next seven months
- UFC's historical scheduling patterns for bantamweight title defenses and whether a title fight is already booked
- Recent fight outcomes and momentum of the leading contender versus other top-ranked competitors
- Any contractual or promotional factors affecting fighter availability or priority in the division

Contracts:
- Who will be the Bantamweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?: Petr Yan — 54¢ Kalshi $259 (weight 38%)
- Who will be the Bantamweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?: Merab Dvalishvili — 36¢ Kalshi $400 (weight 59%)
- Who will be the Bantamweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?: Umar Nurmagomedov — 3¢ Kalshi $23 (weight 3%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-10T07:20:52.069Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "54% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ufcbantamweighttitle
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20be%20the%20Bantamweight%20Title%20Holder%20on%20Dec%2031%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev