51% — Who will be the Featherweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026
Leader: Alexander Volkanovski at 51% · Kalshi 51% · 2 contracts · $27 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-08-26 10:44:06 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market reflects a 32% probability that a specific fighter (Alexander Volkanovski) will hold the UFC featherweight title on December 31, 2026. The current leader commands nearly double the runner-up's probability, suggesting market participants view this outcome as plausible but not favored. The price is driven by factors including Volkanovski's current title status, injury history, and the competitive depth of the featherweight division. Key variables that would shift this probability include upcoming title fights scheduled before year-end, injury announcements, and performance results of challengers. The main resolution catalyst will be the outcomes of featherweight title bouts occurring between now and December 31, 2026, with any vacating, loss, or long-term injury potentially eliminating this outcome entirely.

Key factors:
- Volkanovski's recent injury history and recovery timeline relative to potential title defenses before December 31, 2026
- Number and timing of scheduled featherweight title fights in the second half of 2026
- Performance and momentum of top-ranked featherweight contenders who could challenge for the title
- Whether Volkanovski retains or loses the title in any scheduled bouts before the end of 2026
- The 15% probability assigned to the runner-up outcome, indicating meaningful uncertainty about who holds the title on year-end

Contracts:
- Who will be the Featherweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?: Alexander Volkanovski — 51¢ Kalshi $27 (weight 100%)
- Who will be the Featherweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?: Movsar Evloev — 44¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-26T10:20:49.173Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "51% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ufcfeatherweighttitle
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20be%20the%20Featherweight%20Title%20Holder%20on%20Dec%2031%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev