48% — Will Francis Marshall win the Marshall vs Brennan professional MMA fight scheduled for Apr 25, 2026 Kalshi 48% · 20 contracts · $304K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 06:43:46 UTC Why this matters: This market reflects traders' assessment that Francis Marshall has roughly even odds of defeating Brennan in their scheduled April 25, 2026 MMA fight. The 48% probability suggests the match is viewed as competitive, though slightly favoring Brennan. Factors influencing this level include each fighter's recent performance record, head-to-head matchup dynamics, and any physical or stylistic advantages. The fight itself on April 25 will provide definitive resolution—the outcome depends on how the bout plays out in real time across multiple rounds. Marshall would need to execute his strategy effectively against Brennan's specific strengths to move from slight underdog to victor. Current contract volume and Kalshi pricing suggest moderate but not exceptionally high trader interest in this particular matchup compared to other scheduled fights. Key factors: - Marshall's recent fight results and win-loss record relative to Brennan's comparable statistics - Stylistic matchup dynamics, including striking range, grappling ability, and cardio profiles of both fighters - Injury status or training camp updates for either fighter prior to April 25 - Head-to-head record if fighters have previously competed, or comparable opponent records if this is a new matchup - Betting volume and price movement on Kalshi contracts relative to similar MMA fights, indicating trader confidence level Contracts: - Will Conor McGregor win the Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway professional MMA fight scheduled for Jul 11, 2026?: Conor McGregor — 34¢ Kalshi $182K (weight 60%) - Will Theodor Berggren win the Donchenko vs Berggren professional MMA fight scheduled for Jun 27, 2026?: Theodor Berggren — 20¢ Kalshi $17K (weight 6%) - Will Max Holloway win the Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway professional MMA fight scheduled for Jul 11, 2026?: Max Holloway — 66¢ Kalshi $15K (weight 5%) - Will Manuel Torres win the Fiziev vs Torres professional MMA fight scheduled for Jun 27, 2026?: Manuel Torres — 51¢ Kalshi $14K (weight 4%) - Will Rafael Fiziev win the Fiziev vs Torres professional MMA fight scheduled for Jun 27, 2026?: Rafael Fiziev — 49¢ Kalshi $14K (weight 4%) - Will Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev win the Yakhyaev vs Walker professional MMA fight scheduled for Jun 27, 2026?: Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev — 83¢ Kalshi $9K (weight 3%) - Will Julius Walker win the Yakhyaev vs Walker professional MMA fight scheduled for Jun 27, 2026?: Julius Walker — 17¢ Kalshi $8K (weight 3%) - Will Javier Reyes win the Ofli vs Reyes professional MMA fight scheduled for Jun 27, 2026?: Javier Reyes — 65¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 2%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T06:20:50.478Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "48% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ufcfight Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Francis%20Marshall%20win%20the%20Marshall%20vs%20Brennan%20professional%20MMA%20fight%20scheduled%20for%20Apr%2025%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev