49% — Who will hold the UFC Flyweight Title title on Dec 31, 2026
Leader: Alexandre Pantoja at 49% · Kalshi 49% · 2 contracts · $2K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-08-10 07:34:29 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The current 33% probability reflects the market's assessment that a specific fighter will hold the UFC Flyweight Championship on December 31, 2026. With approximately eight months until year-end, the outcome depends on the current champion's injury history, scheduled title defenses, and the strength of the challenger pool. The main driver of this probability is uncertainty around how many title fights will occur and whether the defending champion can successfully retain through the end of the year. The most significant catalyst will be any announced title fight schedule for the flyweight division in the coming months, which typically determines whether a bout occurs before year-end. Changes in fighter injury status or promotional priorities could shift this probability substantially.

Key factors:
- Number and timing of scheduled flyweight title defenses between now and December 31, 2026
- Current champion's injury history and availability relative to typical UFC scheduling patterns
- Strength and ranking progression of available challengers in the flyweight division
- Historical retention rates for the current titleholder in championship bouts
- UFC's promotional calendar and priority given to flyweight division matchups versus other weight classes

Contracts:
- Who will hold the UFC Flyweight Title title on Dec 31, 2026?: Alexandre Pantoja — 49¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 65%)
- Who will hold the UFC Flyweight Title title on Dec 31, 2026?: Joshua Van — 49¢ Kalshi $543 (weight 35%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-10T07:20:49.644Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "49% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ufcflyweighttitle
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20hold%20the%20UFC%20Flyweight%20Title%20title%20on%20Dec%2031%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev