65% — Who will be the Welterweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026
Leader: Islam Makhachev at 65% · Kalshi 65% · 4 contracts · $360 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 14:22:22 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market reflects a 59% probability that Imanuel Alkhalifa will hold the UFC welterweight title on December 31, 2026. The current leader's elevated odds suggest confidence in either his path to the title or retention if he holds it presently, though the runner-up sits at only 8%, indicating no clear consensus on alternatives. The main drivers are Alkhalifa's competitive ranking, scheduled title fight timing, and potential injuries or upsets among other contenders. Title fights typically occur 2–3 months after announcement, making any official UFC matchmaking announcement critical to resolving this outcome. The Dec 31 deadline means only fights scheduled before late October 2026 would likely affect the final title holder.

Key factors:
- Alkhalifa's current official UFC ranking and proximity to a title shot as of mid-2026
- Announcement or scheduling of a specific welterweight title bout involving Alkhalifa or the current champion
- Historical UFC welterweight title fight frequency and average time-to-bout from announcement to execution
- Injury reports or withdrawal announcements by Alkhalifa or the sitting champion in the second half of 2026
- Relative betting volume and odds movement across the three contracts, indicating whether conviction is concentrated or dispersed

Contracts:
- Who will be the Welterweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?: Islam Makhachev — 65¢ Kalshi $68 (weight 19%)
- Who will be the Welterweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?: Ian Machado Garry — 28¢ Kalshi $255 (weight 71%)
- Who will be the Welterweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?: Carlos Prates — 5¢ Kalshi $37 (weight 10%)
- Who will be the Welterweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?: Kamaru Usman — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T14:20:49.177Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "65% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ufcwelterweighttitle
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20be%20the%20Welterweight%20Title%20Holder%20on%20Dec%2031%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev