18% — Will Birmingham Stallions be the UFL champion
Kalshi 18% · 5 contracts · $418 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-29 02:44:23 UTC

Why this matters:
The 27% probability reflects market expectations that Birmingham will win the UFL championship this season. This estimate is shaped by the team's performance relative to other UFL franchises and their remaining schedule strength. The primary catalyst for this probability would be playoff performance, as the UFL typically concludes its championship in late spring or early summer. Teams with stronger win-loss records and head-to-head results against competitors would see their probabilities shift accordingly as the postseason approaches. Market participants are pricing in current roster quality, coaching decisions, and injury status to form this assessment.

Key factors:
- Birmingham's current win-loss record and conference standing compared to other UFL teams
- Team roster depth and key player health status entering the playoff period
- Recent performance trends and point differential in games against playoff contenders
- Strength of schedule for remaining regular season games relative to competition
- Historical UFL championship win rates for teams at similar regular-season performance levels

Contracts:
- Will DC Defenders be the UFL champion?: DC Defenders — 28¢ Kalshi $394 (weight 94%)
- Will Louisville Kings be the UFL champion?: Louisville Kings — 51¢ Kalshi $24 (weight 6%)
- Will Columbus Aviators be the UFL champion?: Columbus Aviators — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Dallas Renegades be the UFL champion?: Dallas Renegades — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Houston Gamblers be the UFL champion?: Houston Gamblers — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-13T13:20:50.695Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "18% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/uflchamp
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Birmingham%20Stallions%20be%20the%20UFL%20champion
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev