4% — Orlando Storm wins by over 4.5 points
Kalshi 4% · 7 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:20:58 UTC

Why this matters:
This market asks whether the Orlando Storm will defeat their opponent by more than 4.5 points in an upcoming matchup. The current 8% probability suggests the market views this outcome as unlikely. The probability reflects Orlando's recent performance metrics and how they match up against their opponent, combined with factors like home-field advantage and current roster health. The main driver pushing this probability down appears to be relative team strength—the contracting volume concentrated on St. Louis Battlehawks suggests market participants expect a different outcome. Uncertainty will resolve when the game concludes and the final margin of victory is determined. The specific date of the matchup and both teams' recent form heading into that contest will be the primary catalysts affecting where this probability settles in the interim.

Key factors:
- Orlando Storm's offensive and defensive efficiency rankings relative to their opponent in recent games
- Whether the game is played at Orlando's home stadium or away, as home-field advantage typically shifts win probability by 2-3 points
- Head-to-head historical performance between these specific teams, including any relevant matchup-specific advantages
- Injury or roster status updates for key players on either team in the days before the scheduled game
- Current betting line and point spread from major sportsbooks, which typically incorporates similar information available to professional oddsmakers

Contracts:
- Orlando Storm wins by over 4.5 points?: Orlando Storm wins by over 4.5 points — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- Orlando Storm wins by over 3.5 points?: Orlando Storm wins by over 3.5 points — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- Dallas Renegades wins by over 13.5 points?: Dallas Renegades wins by over 13.5 points — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- Dallas Renegades wins by over 7.5 points?: Dallas Renegades wins by over 7.5 points — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- Dallas Renegades wins by over 6.5 points?: Dallas Renegades wins by over 6.5 points — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- Dallas Renegades wins by over 3.5 points?: Dallas Renegades wins by over 3.5 points — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- Birmingham Stallions wins by over 1.5 points?: Birmingham Stallions wins by over 1.5 points — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)

Cite as: "4% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/uflspread
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Orlando%20Storm%20wins%20by%20over%204.5%20points
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev