89% — Will UK inflation rate YoY for March 2026 be above 3.6%
Leader: Above 2.4% at 89% · Kalshi 89% · 14 contracts · $13 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 04:42:07 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 14 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Will UK inflation rate YoY for May 2026 be above 2.4%?: Above 2.4% — 89¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will UK inflation rate YoY for May 2026 be above 2.5%?: Above 2.5% — 86¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will UK inflation rate YoY for May 2026 be above 2.6%?: Above 2.6% — 84¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will UK inflation rate YoY for May 2026 be above 2.7%?: Above 2.7% — 82¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will UK inflation rate YoY for May 2026 be above 2.8%?: Above 2.8% — 74¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will UK inflation rate YoY for May 2026 be above 2.9%?: Above 2.9% — 67¢ Kalshi $13 (weight 100%)
- Will UK inflation rate YoY for May 2026 be above 3.0%?: Above 3.0% — 47¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will UK inflation rate YoY for May 2026 be above 3.1%?: Above 3.1% — 34¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 6 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T04:20:12.519Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "89% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ukcpiyoy
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20UK%20inflation%20rate%20YoY%20for%20March%202026%20be%20above%203.6%25
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev