86% — Will UK GDP MoM for March 2026 be above -0.1%
Leader: Above -0.5% at 86% · Kalshi 86% · 10 contracts · $601 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:21:42 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 10 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract asks whether UK GDP expanded month-over-month in March 2026, or contracted by 0.1% or less. The 90% probability reflects strong confidence that a significant contraction did not occur. UK economic momentum, recent employment data, and consumer spending patterns heading into Q1 2026 appear to be driving this high reading; weakness in these indicators would lower the probability. The resolution depends on the Office for National Statistics' official GDP release, typically published 30 days after month-end. March 2026 data would ordinarily be released in late April, meaning this contract was likely already settled or is imminently resolvable. Traders are pricing in a modest positive or flat performance rather than a pronounced decline.

Key factors:
- UK labor market strength and unemployment levels in early 2026 influence consumer confidence and spending capacity
- Monthly services and manufacturing PMI readings for March 2026 signal real-time economic activity and business confidence
- Retail sales data for March 2026 provides advance signals of consumer demand before GDP release
- Brexit-related supply chain disruptions or trade friction could suppress month-on-month activity
- Sterling exchange rates and import/export pricing dynamics affect measured GDP growth in nominal terms

Contracts:
- Will UK GDP MoM for March 2026 be above -0.5%?: Above -0.5% — 86¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will UK GDP MoM for March 2026 be above -0.4%?: Above -0.4% — 83¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will UK GDP MoM for March 2026 be above -0.3%?: Above -0.3% — 81¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will UK GDP MoM for March 2026 be above -0.2%?: Above -0.2% — 67¢ Kalshi $200 (weight 33%)
- Will UK GDP MoM for March 2026 be above -0.1%?: Above -0.1% — 54¢ Kalshi $400 (weight 67%)
- Will UK GDP MoM for March 2026 be above 0.0%?: Above 0.0% — 40¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will UK GDP MoM for March 2026 be above 0.1%?: Above 0.1% — 29¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will UK GDP MoM for March 2026 be above 0.2%?: Above 0.2% — 19¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 2 more

Cite as: "86% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ukgdpmom
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20UK%20GDP%20MoM%20for%20March%202026%20be%20above%20-0.1%25
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev