70% — Will UK GDP MoM for March 2026 be above -0.1%
Leader: Above -0.4% at 70% · Kalshi 70% · 13 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-29 00:25:54 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 13 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract asks whether UK GDP expanded month-over-month in March 2026, or contracted by 0.1% or less. The 90% probability reflects strong confidence that a significant contraction did not occur. UK economic momentum, recent employment data, and consumer spending patterns heading into Q1 2026 appear to be driving this high reading; weakness in these indicators would lower the probability. The resolution depends on the Office for National Statistics' official GDP release, typically published 30 days after month-end. March 2026 data would ordinarily be released in late April, meaning this contract was likely already settled or is imminently resolvable. Traders are pricing in a modest positive or flat performance rather than a pronounced decline.

Key factors:
- UK labor market strength and unemployment levels in early 2026 influence consumer confidence and spending capacity
- Monthly services and manufacturing PMI readings for March 2026 signal real-time economic activity and business confidence
- Retail sales data for March 2026 provides advance signals of consumer demand before GDP release
- Brexit-related supply chain disruptions or trade friction could suppress month-on-month activity
- Sterling exchange rates and import/export pricing dynamics affect measured GDP growth in nominal terms

Contracts:
- Will UK GDP MoM for April 2026 be above -0.4%?: Above -0.4% — 70¢ Kalshi $32 (weight 1%)
- Will UK GDP MoM for April 2026 be above -0.6%?: Above -0.6% — 70¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will UK GDP MoM for April 2026 be above -0.3%?: Above -0.3% — 60¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 0%)
- Will UK GDP MoM for April 2026 be above -0.5%?: Above -0.5% — 56¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%)
- Will UK GDP MoM for April 2026 be above -0.2%?: Above -0.2% — 45¢ Kalshi $200 (weight 6%)
- Will UK GDP MoM for April 2026 be above -0.1%?: Above -0.1% — 40¢ Kalshi $801 (weight 24%)
- Will UK GDP MoM for April 2026 be above 0.1%?: Above 0.1% — 24¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 39%)
- Will UK GDP MoM for April 2026 be above 0.4%?: Above 0.4% — 23¢ Kalshi $203 (weight 6%)
- ... and 5 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-13T01:20:51.587Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "70% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ukgdpmom
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20UK%20GDP%20MoM%20for%20March%202026%20be%20above%20-0.1%25
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev