10% — Will there be a Ukraine ceasefire?
Kalshi 7% · Polymarket 21% · 20 contracts · $4.3M volume · high confidence
Updated 2026-07-24 03:36:07 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 14pp (Polymarket higher)

Contracts:
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?: December 31 — 36¢ Polymarket $2.0M (weight 47%)
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?: October 31 — 22¢ Polymarket $742K (weight 17%)
- Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? — 3¢ Kalshi $595K (weight 14%)
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?: August 31 — 9¢ Polymarket $265K (weight 6%)
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?: October 31 — 13¢ Polymarket $256K (weight 6%)
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?: December 31 — 23¢ Polymarket $248K (weight 6%)
- Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy leave President of Ukraine before Oct 1, 2026? — 5¢ Kalshi $41K (weight 1%)
- Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? — 4¢ Kalshi $31K (weight 1%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-23T06:41:53.290Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "10% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ukraine-ceasefire
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20there%20be%20a%20Ukraine%20ceasefire%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev