22% — Will there be a Ukraine ceasefire?
Kalshi 6% · Polymarket 38% · 30 contracts · $7.2M volume · high confidence
Updated 2026-09-20 22:14:21 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 32pp (Polymarket higher)

Contracts:
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?: December 31 — 23¢ Polymarket $2.6M (weight 37%)
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?: October 31 — 8¢ Polymarket $1.7M (weight 23%)
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?: December 31 — 14¢ Polymarket $905K (weight 13%)
- Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? — 4¢ Kalshi $806K (weight 11%)
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?: October 31 — 6¢ Polymarket $693K (weight 10%)
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?: June 30, 2027 — 56¢ Polymarket $151K (weight 2%)
- Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? — 12¢ Kalshi $69K (weight 1%)
- Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy leave President of Ukraine before Oct 1, 2026? — 2¢ Kalshi $47K (weight 1%)
- ... and 12 more

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-09-19T06:42:22.454Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "22% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ukraine-ceasefire
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20there%20be%20a%20Ukraine%20ceasefire%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev