19% — Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by...
Polymarket 19% · 9 contracts · $159K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-19 13:10:48 UTC

Contracts:
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?: September 30 — 5¢ Polymarket $99K (weight 63%)
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?: December 31 — 10¢ Polymarket $46K (weight 29%)
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?: June 30, 2026 — 29¢ Polymarket $6K (weight 4%)
- Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?: June 30, 2026 — 6¢ Polymarket $3K (weight 2%)
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?: December 31, 2026 — 92¢ Polymarket $1K (weight 1%)
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?: December 31 — 8¢ Polymarket $1K (weight 1%)
- Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?: December 31 — 6¢ Polymarket $1K (weight 1%)
- Will US withdraw from NATO by...?: December 31 — 5¢ Polymarket $849 (weight 1%)
- ... and 1 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-18T05:20:21.689Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "19% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ukraine-reenter-rodynske
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Ukraine%20re-enter%20Rodynske%20by...
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev