95% — Will United Kingdom retail sales MoM for March 2026 be above 1.0% Leader: Above -2.0% at 95% · Kalshi 95% · 8 contracts · $2 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 13:13:41 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes. Why this matters: This represents traders' assessment that UK retail sales will increase by more than 1.0% month-over-month in March 2026. The 90% probability reflects expectations of seasonal strength typical in early spring, following post-winter recovery patterns in consumer spending. Traders are pricing in resilience in retail demand despite inflation pressures, though contract prices across higher thresholds (0.5%, 1.0%, 1.5% growth) decline substantially, suggesting less confidence in stronger gains. The outcome will be determined when the UK Office for National Statistics releases the March 2026 retail sales data, typically in late April 2026. Key downside risks include persistent consumer caution, weak wage growth, or unexpected economic shocks. Upside scenarios assume holiday promotional carryover and Easter holiday spending boost the monthly figure. Key factors: - Historical March retail sales data shows seasonal uplift following winter declines, establishing baseline expectations for positive month-over-month growth - Current inflation levels and wage growth trajectories in Q1 2026 will directly affect consumer purchasing power and spending patterns in March - The 90% price on the -1.5% floor contract versus much lower prices at 0.5%+ thresholds indicates traders expect growth but are uncertain about magnitude - Easter holiday timing in 2026 relative to the March measurement period affects promotional activity and discretionary spending patterns - ONS data release schedule in April 2026 represents the singular resolution event; preliminary estimates may differ from revised figures released subsequently Contracts: - Will United Kingdom retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above -2.0%?: Above -2.0% — 95¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 50%) - Will United Kingdom retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above -1.5%?: Above -1.5% — 91¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will United Kingdom retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above -1.0%?: Above -1.0% — 80¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will United Kingdom retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 0.0%?: Above 0.0% — 60¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will United Kingdom retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 0.5%?: Above 0.5% — 42¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will United Kingdom retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 1.0%?: Above 1.0% — 12¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 50%) - Will United Kingdom retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 1.5%?: Above 1.5% — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will United Kingdom retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 2.0%?: Above 2.0% — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T12:20:50.596Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "95% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ukretail Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20United%20Kingdom%20retail%20sales%20MoM%20for%20March%202026%20be%20above%201.0%25 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev