73% — Ulsan Mayoral Election Winner
Leader: Kim Sang-wook at 73% · Polymarket 73% · 2 contracts · $17K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 21:13:02 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability indicates market participants estimate a 53% chance that Kim Doo-kyum wins the Ulsan mayoral election, versus a 48% chance for Kim Sang-wook, with less than 1% probability distributed among other candidates or a tie. The tight pricing reflects genuine uncertainty between two similarly-positioned candidates. The market is pricing in factors such as recent polling data, regional voting patterns in Ulsan, each candidate's campaign momentum, and endorsements from provincial or national political figures. The resolution depends on the official election date and certified results from Ulsan authorities. Trading volume remains low on both contracts ($2,623 for Kim Sang-wook over 24 hours), suggesting limited market attention or that most positions are already established. Any significant new information about either candidate's viability, electability concerns, or shifts in Ulsan voter sentiment would likely move these probabilities meaningfully.

Key factors:
- Current polling or survey data from Ulsan showing relative support levels for each candidate
- Regional and historical voting patterns in Ulsan metropolitan elections and their predictive power for this race
- Endorsement patterns from major national political parties or provincial leadership figures
- Campaign spending and organizational strength reported for each candidate
- Official election date and any scheduled debates, candidate forums, or media events that could shift voter perception

Contracts:
- Ulsan Mayoral Election Winner: Kim Sang-wook — 73¢ Polymarket $8K (weight 50%)
- Ulsan Mayoral Election Winner: Kim Doo-kyum — 25¢ Polymarket $8K (weight 50%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:12.563Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "73% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ulsan-mayoral-election-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Ulsan%20Mayoral%20Election%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev