49% — What will United States representative(s) say during Maintenance of peace and security of Ukraine - Security Council
Leader: Russia at 49% · Kalshi 49% · 13 contracts · $11K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 21:08:43 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 13 outcomes.

Contracts:
- What will United States representative(s) say during Maintenance of peace and security of Ukraine - Security Council?: Russia — 49¢ Kalshi $485 (weight 4%)
- What will United States representative(s) say during Maintenance of peace and security of Ukraine - Security Council?: Kyiv / Kiev — 47¢ Kalshi $171 (weight 2%)
- What will United States representative(s) say during Maintenance of peace and security of Ukraine - Security Council?: Ceasefire — 38¢ Kalshi $203 (weight 2%)
- What will United States representative(s) say during Maintenance of peace and security of Ukraine - Security Council?: Event does not qualify — 31¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 12%)
- What will United States representative(s) say during Maintenance of peace and security of Ukraine - Security Council?: NATO / Ally — 28¢ Kalshi $87 (weight 1%)
- What will United States representative(s) say during Maintenance of peace and security of Ukraine - Security Council?: Marco / Rubio — 16¢ Kalshi $53 (weight 0%)
- What will United States representative(s) say during Maintenance of peace and security of Ukraine - Security Council?: Nuclear — 14¢ Kalshi $774 (weight 7%)
- What will United States representative(s) say during Maintenance of peace and security of Ukraine - Security Council?: Putin — 12¢ Kalshi $345 (weight 3%)
- ... and 5 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:07.220Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "49% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/unmention
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20United%20States%20representative(s)%20say%20during%20Maintenance%20of%20peace%20and%20security%20of%20Ukraine%20-%20Security%20Council
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev