42% — U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by...
Kalshi 42% · 5 contracts · $5 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 05:50:57 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the likelihood that the U.S. conducts a ground military operation targeting drug cartels or criminal organizations in Mexico before a specific deadline. The 29% aggregate probability sits between two distinct market views: Kalshi traders (averaging 41%) assess higher risk, while Polymarket traders (averaging 20%) see it as less likely. The gap suggests disagreement about whether escalating border security tensions, cartel violence, or political pressure would trigger direct military action. Key drivers include the Trump administration's stance on border security and Mexico, current cartel activity levels, and Mexico's willingness to permit or resist such operations. Related markets show traders view entry restrictions as more probable than military intervention, and assign low odds to regime change in Mexico, suggesting uncertainty about the political stability needed for such an operation to proceed.

Key factors:
- Trump administration rhetoric and policy on border security versus actual military readiness—stated intent differs materially from operational authorization
- Mexico's diplomatic and military capacity to resist or cooperate with U.S. ground operations—Sheinbaum administration's position remains unclarified in markets
- Cartel violence escalation or border-related incidents that could trigger domestic U.S. political pressure for military action before the deadline
- Historical precedent and legal/diplomatic barriers—no recent U.S. ground operation in Mexico exists, creating uncertainty about threshold for action
- Timing concentration—if the deadline is 2026 year-end or sooner, the window for operational planning and execution narrows significantly

Contracts:
- Will the U.S. sovereign wealth fund be operational before 2027?: Before 2027 — 22¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 100%)
- Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in New Mexico be at least 21 percentage points?: Democrats, 21+ pts — 35¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in New Mexico be at least 27 percentage points?: Democrats, 27+ pts — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in New Mexico be at least 9 percentage points?: Democrats, 9+ pts — 80¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in New Mexico be at least 15 percentage points?: Democrats, 15+ pts — 61¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T05:20:48.656Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "42% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/us-anticartel-ground-operation-mexico
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=U.S.%20anti-cartel%20ground%20operation%20in%20Mexico%20by...
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev