10% — Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...
Leader: December 31 at 10% · Polymarket 10% · 2 contracts · $145K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-21 08:16:27 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects a less than 1-in-5 chance that the U.S. government will officially confirm the existence of extraterrestrial life by December 31, 2026. The low probability reflects skepticism about formal government confirmation occurring within seven months, despite increased public discussion of UAPs (unidentified aerial phenomena) and ongoing congressional scrutiny. Price variation across contract endpoints—21% for before 2027, 18% for year-end, 13% for September—suggests traders perceive the timeline as the binding constraint rather than the likelihood of confirmation itself. Key drivers include the pace of government investigations, congressional pressure, and the extremely high evidentiary bar required for official confirmation. The most immediate uncertainty centers on whether any congressional or Pentagon disclosures scheduled through 2026 would constitute formal confirmation versus continued ambiguity about UAP origins.

Key factors:
- Congressional UAP oversight committees have scheduled hearings but have not produced formal government confirmation of extraterrestrial life to date, and the definition of 'confirm' vs. acknowledging UAP unexplainability remains legally unclear
- The U.S. military and intelligence agencies continue investigating UAPs but have not presented evidence definitively attributing any incidents to extraterrestrial origin, focusing instead on exotic foreign technology or classified aviation programs
- Contract pricing suggests traders assign higher probability to pre-2027 confirmation (21%) than year-end 2026 (18%), indicating skepticism about the compressed seven-month timeline despite acknowledgment of non-zero possibility
- Major government reports and declassifications have not previously risen to the threshold of confirming alien existence, establishing an institutional precedent for measured language over extraordinary claims
- The definition of 'confirm' would require formal, explicit government statement—not inference, suggestion, or acknowledgment of unexplained phenomena—which represents an unusually high procedural and evidential bar

Contracts:
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?: December 31 — 10¢ Polymarket $46K (weight 32%)
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?: September 30 — 5¢ Polymarket $99K (weight 68%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "10% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/us-confirm-that-aliens-exist
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20US%20confirm%20that%20aliens%20exist%20by...
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev