46% — US economic state at the end of 2026
Leader: Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) at 46% · Polymarket 46% · 4 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-24 08:24:33 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Markets are pricing a 42% chance that the U.S. economy will show overheating conditions by year-end 2026, defined as unemployment below 5.0% and inflation at or above 3.5%. This outcome reflects traders' assessment that despite recent cooling efforts, labor markets remain tight and price pressures persist. The current probability sits above the soft-landing scenario (25%) but competes with stagflation and slack-economy outcomes. The main factors driving this level are the trajectory of Federal Reserve policy decisions through 2026 and incoming inflation data releases, which will signal whether current economic momentum can be sustained without reigniting price growth. The monthly consumer price index and employment reports through November 2026 will be critical in determining whether this outcome materializes, with particular attention to core inflation trends and wage growth relative to productivity gains.

Key factors:
- Federal funds rate path from mid-2026 onward: higher rates would reduce overheating risk, while paused or cut rates would increase it
- Quarterly inflation data through Q3 2026: sustained CPI readings above 3.5% core would support the overheating thesis
- Labor force participation and wage growth rates: strong wage gains with tight labor markets would reinforce overheating conditions
- Supply-side shocks or energy price movements: negative shocks could push inflation higher independent of demand-side tightness
- Economic growth rate in first and second quarters of 2026: sustained above-trend growth would make unemployment below 5.0% more likely

Contracts:
- US economic state at the end of 2026?: Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) — 46¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 25%)
- US economic state at the end of 2026?: Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) — 36¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 25%)
- US economic state at the end of 2026?: Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) — 32¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 25%)
- US economic state at the end of 2026?: Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) — 18¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 25%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "46% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/us-economic-state
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=US%20economic%20state%20at%20the%20end%20of%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev