55% — US GDP growth in Q1 2026?: <1.0% Kalshi 90% · Polymarket 20% · 8 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-08 03:16:25 UTC Cross-venue gap: 70pp (Kalshi higher) Why this matters: This contract predicts whether US GDP expanded less than 1.0% in the first quarter of 2026. The 43% aggregate probability reflects meaningful disagreement across venues: Kalshi traders price it at 58%, while Polymarket participants estimate 23%, a 35-percentage-point gap suggesting different interpretations of recent economic data. The probability hinges on labor market strength, consumer spending patterns, and Fed policy decisions made in late 2025 and early 2026. The single largest catalyst for resolving this uncertainty is the official GDP report released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, typically arriving in late April or early May for Q1 data. This timing means the contract may already reflect preliminary estimates, though revisions occur in subsequent months and could alter the final outcome. Key factors: - Q1 2026 GDP is measurable quarterly growth data with a clear numerical threshold (1.0%) published by the BEA, making the outcome binary and verifiable - Kalshi's 35-point premium over Polymarket suggests either different trader bases, risk preferences, or information sets interpreting the same economic conditions differently - The contract references a quarterly figure already in the recent past (May 2026 is post-Q1), indicating markets may be pricing incomplete preliminary data subject to future revisions - Labor market conditions and consumer spending in January-March 2026 are the primary economic drivers; weakness in either would push probability higher - The 58% Kalshi price indicates near-even odds on the slow-growth scenario among professional traders, reflecting genuine uncertainty rather than consensus Contracts: - Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY for Q1 2026 be above 2.6%?: Above 2.6% — 70¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) - Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY for Q1 2026 be above 2.4%?: Above 2.4% — 96¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) - Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY for Q1 2026 be above 2.2%?: Above 2.2% — 97¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) - Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY for Q1 2026 be above 2.0%?: Above 2.0% — 96¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) - Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026: 6.0-7.0% — 29¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 13%) - 2026 World GDP Growth: 3.3% — 16¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 13%) - Negative GDP growth in 2026? — 8¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 13%) - Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026: <0% — 25¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 13%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-08T02:20:11.096Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "55% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/us-gdp-growth-q1 Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=US%20GDP%20growth%20in%20Q1%202026%3F%3A%20%3C1.0%25 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev