33% — US Trade Deficit in 2026?: 600–700B
Leader: 800–900B at 33% · Polymarket 33% · 8 contracts · $124 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-25 17:37:36 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract asks whether the US trade deficit will fall within the $600–700 billion range during 2026. The current 44% probability indicates a near-even split, with substantial uncertainty about trade dynamics. The forecast reflects competing pressures: ongoing imports relative to exports, potential trade policy shifts under the current administration, and China's trade balance position. Monthly trade data releases, particularly April 2026 figures and subsequent months, will provide concrete evidence of deficit trends. A key catalyst is whether Trump announces a major trade deal before June 1—currently priced at 33%—which could reshape tariff structures and trade flows. Secondary factors include China's balance-of-trade strength and any policy announcements affecting bilateral or broader trade arrangements.

Key factors:
- April 2026 US trade deficit reported by Census Bureau will establish whether the deficit is tracking toward the $600–700B annual range or diverging significantly above or below
- Trump administration announces a new trade deal before June 1, 2026 (33¢ probability), which could materially alter tariff rates and bilateral trade volumes
- China's monthly trade balance consistently above $130B USD (7¢ probability) would signal sustained export pressure affecting US imports and overall deficit calculations
- Cumulative year-to-date deficit through May 2026 provides the running total from which annualized projections are made
- No major policy reversals or enforcement actions change existing tariff regimes between now and year-end 2026

Contracts:
- US Trade Deficit in 2026?: 800–900B — 33¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- US Trade Deficit in 2026?: 700–800B — 20¢ Polymarket $69 (weight 56%)
- US Trade Deficit in 2026?: 900B–1T — 14¢ Polymarket $55 (weight 44%)
- US Trade Deficit in 2026?: 600–700B — 10¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- US Trade Deficit in 2026?: 1T–1.1T — 5¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- US Trade Deficit in 2026?: <500B — 5¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- US Trade Deficit in 2026?: 1.1T+ — 4¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- US Trade Deficit in 2026?: 500–600B — 3¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "33% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/us-trade-deficit
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=US%20Trade%20Deficit%20in%202026%3F%3A%20600%E2%80%93700B
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev