57% — US x Cuba economic deal by...
Leader: December 31 at 57% · Polymarket 57% · 3 contracts · $48 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-24 08:35:21 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that the United States and Cuba will reach an economic deal by a specified deadline. The 17% level suggests traders view a near-term agreement as unlikely given the historical tensions and competing political priorities in both countries. The probability would shift primarily based on changes in US administration policy toward Cuba, signals from Cuban leadership about willingness to negotiate, and whether Congress removes restrictions on US-Cuba trade. Any high-level diplomatic engagement or public statements from either government indicating serious negotiations would likely move this probability significantly. The timing of the next US presidential administration and their stated position on Cuba relations represents a key uncertainty factor, as does the current status of Congressional restrictions on normalization efforts.

Key factors:
- Current US trade embargo remains in place with no recent signals of imminent policy reversal from the sitting administration
- Cuban economic conditions and leadership stability, including the June 30 probability of Díaz-Canel remaining in power (19%), may affect negotiating capacity or willingness
- Congressional approval would likely be required for major economic normalization, adding a procedural barrier beyond executive negotiation
- Recent pattern of US-Cuba relations shows limited diplomatic momentum compared to 2014-2017 normalization period
- Market volume on related Cuba contracts is relatively low, suggesting limited trader conviction and potential for sharp probability moves on new information

Contracts:
- US x Cuba economic deal by...?: December 31 — 57¢ Polymarket $17 (weight 35%)
- US x Cuba economic deal by...?: July 31 — 14¢ Polymarket $6 (weight 12%)
- US x Cuba economic deal by...?: June 30 — 11¢ Polymarket $25 (weight 53%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "57% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/us-x-cuba-economic-deal
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=US%20x%20Cuba%20economic%20deal%20by...
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev