31% — Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year
Leader: Before Jan 20, 2029 at 31% · Kalshi 31% · 6 contracts · $6K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-22 14:22:50 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This represents the probability that the US will reach a new nuclear agreement with Iran before January 20, 2029. The current 35% probability reflects significant skepticism that negotiations will succeed, despite ongoing diplomatic discussions. The likelihood depends heavily on whether the incoming administration prioritizes engagement with Iran and whether Iran is willing to accept terms the US finds acceptable. Near-term contract prices (4% for November 2026, 7% for January 2027) suggest traders expect no imminent breakthrough, with most probability weight extending through 2028. The primary catalysts would be explicit statements from US leadership about negotiation timelines, changes in Iran's regional posture, or shifts in European support for deal terms. Resolution ultimately depends on whether formal agreement is signed and ratified, not just preliminary negotiations.

Key factors:
- US presidential transition in January 2025 and associated foreign policy direction changes
- Iran's willingness to engage on enrichment limits and verification protocols acceptable to the US
- Level of support or opposition from Congress, which must approve any binding agreement
- Regional stability factors including Israeli-Iranian tensions and ongoing proxy conflicts
- Timeline for observable progress in direct talks, which could occur before November 2026 or extend into 2027-2028

Contracts:
- Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Jan 20, 2029 — 31¢ Kalshi $83 (weight 1%)
- Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Jan 1, 2028 — 22¢ Kalshi $233 (weight 4%)
- Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Feb 1, 2027 — 8¢ Kalshi $38 (weight 1%)
- Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Mar 1, 2027 — 8¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%)
- Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 7¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 47%)
- Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Dec 1, 2026 — 5¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 47%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-22T14:20:51.291Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "31% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/usairanagreement
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20US%20agree%20to%20a%20new%20Iranian%20nuclear%20deal%20this%20year
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev