54% — Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year Leader: Before Jan 20, 2029 at 54% · Kalshi 54% · 9 contracts · $13K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-24 02:47:06 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 9 outcomes. Why this matters: The 63% probability reflects traders' assessment that the US and Iran will reach a new nuclear agreement before year-end 2026. This is notably higher than the 34% average on Kalshi, suggesting significant confidence among top contract holders. The outcome depends on whether diplomatic negotiations can overcome longstanding barriers around sanctions relief, uranium enrichment limits, and verification protocols. The 2024 US presidential election outcome and Iran's nuclear program trajectory are primary drivers—an administration change could substantially shift negotiating positions. The coming months will be critical, as any major escalation in Middle East tensions or Iranian nuclear advancement could derail talks, while diplomatic breakthroughs or multilateral pressure could accelerate an agreement. Key decision points likely emerge during UN General Assembly sessions and scheduled diplomatic engagements. Key factors: - The leading contract price (63%) significantly exceeds the Kalshi average (34%), indicating concentration among specific traders with potentially different information or models - No new Iranian nuclear deal has been reached since the 2015 JCPOA, and conditions have fundamentally shifted since the US withdrew in 2018 - The runner-up contract at 50% probability suggests material uncertainty—a 13-point gap indicates substantial disagreement about deal likelihood - Iran's current nuclear stockpile and enrichment levels are higher than historical baselines, potentially affecting negotiation prerequisites - The timeline requires agreement within approximately 8 months from the current date, compressing the window for resolving complex technical and political disputes Contracts: - Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Jan 20, 2029 — 54¢ Kalshi $98 (weight 1%) - Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Jan 1, 2028 — 41¢ Kalshi $67 (weight 1%) - Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Mar 1, 2027 — 18¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 15%) - Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Feb 1, 2027 — 18¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 17¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 31%) - Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Dec 1, 2026 — 17¢ Kalshi $70 (weight 1%) - Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Nov 1, 2026 — 10¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 17%) - Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Oct 1, 2026 — 7¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 19%) - ... and 1 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-24T02:20:51.618Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "54% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/usairanagreement Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20US%20agree%20to%20a%20new%20Iranian%20nuclear%20deal%20this%20year Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev