66% — Will Trump order new or increased tariffs on Canada before Dec 1, 2026 Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027 at 66% · Kalshi 66% · 4 contracts · $7K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-20 17:24:16 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability reflects the market's assessment that Trump will announce new or increased tariffs on Canada before January 1, 2027—currently priced at 11%, indicating traders view this as unlikely but not remote. Trump has previously used tariffs as a negotiating tool, and Canada is a major U.S. trading partner where tariff disputes have historical precedent. The relatively low probability suggests traders expect either ongoing negotiations without tariff escalation, or that any announcements would come after the year-end deadline. The main factors driving this price are Trump's current trade policy stance, ongoing bilateral negotiations, and the political calendar. The most significant catalyst would be any announcement from the Trump administration regarding Canada-specific trade measures, with the probability sensitive to both public statements and formal policy declarations through early December. Key factors: - Trump's recent public statements on Canadian tariffs or trade negotiations and whether his rhetoric indicates imminent action - Status of any ongoing trade negotiations with Canada as of mid-September 2026 and whether they show signs of breakdown - Historical pattern of Trump tariff announcements—whether they typically require lengthy lead time or can be implemented on short notice - Domestic political factors in the U.S. that might incentivize or discourage trade actions before year-end 2026 - Any specific trade disputes or disagreements between the U.S. and Canada that are currently escalating or unresolved Contracts: - Will Trump order new or increased tariffs on Canada before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 66¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Trump order new or increased tariffs on Canada before Dec 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 2026 — 64¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 34%) - Will Trump order new or increased tariffs on Canada before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026 — 60¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 28%) - Will Trump order new or increased tariffs on Canada before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026 — 54¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 37%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-13T19:20:51.562Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "66% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/uscanadatariffup Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Trump%20order%20new%20or%20increased%20tariffs%20on%20Canada%20before%20Dec%201%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev