24% — Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that a new AI safety agreement between the governments of the United States and China has been formally announced after September 16, 2026, at 8:00 PM ET before Oct 1, 2026 Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027 at 24% · Kalshi 24% · 4 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-20 20:45:13 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes. Why this matters: This question asks whether the U.S. and China will formally announce a new AI safety agreement between mid-September 2026 and early 2027, with markets currently pricing a 22% chance this occurs by year-end. The low probability reflects both diplomatic constraints and the tight timeframe: bilateral AI safety agreements are rare and typically require months of negotiation, and no major announcement is currently anticipated before late 2026. The probability distribution across contract tiers suggests traders view a January 2027 deadline as only marginally more likely than December 2026, indicating skepticism about near-term progress. Key drivers include the current state of U.S.-China relations, ongoing AI policy discussions at international forums, and whether either government signals formal negotiation intent. The most immediate resolution trigger would be official statements from either government's foreign affairs or technology ministry announcing a new agreement. Key factors: - No credible reporting as of mid-September 2026 indicates active negotiation or planned announcement of a new bilateral AI safety agreement between the U.S. and China - The 3¢ contract for October 1 resolution suggests traders assess <5% probability of announcement within 13 days, reflecting the compressed timeframe - Historical diplomatic precedent: bilateral AI agreements between major powers typically require 6+ months of formal negotiation and coordination across multiple ministries - The 22% probability for Jan 1, 2027 versus 17% for Dec 1 implies markets assign only ~5% incremental probability to agreements announced specifically in December - Resolution depends on official public announcement by either government or confirmation from credible news agencies—internal agreements or preliminary understandings would not satisfy contract terms Contracts: - Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that a new AI safety agreement between the governments of the United States and China has been formally announced after September 16, 2026, at 8:00 PM ET before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 24¢ Kalshi $457 (weight 28%) - Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that a new AI safety agreement between the governments of the United States and China has been formally announced after September 16, 2026, at 8:00 PM ET before Dec 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 2026 — 19¢ Kalshi $412 (weight 25%) - Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that a new AI safety agreement between the governments of the United States and China has been formally announced after September 16, 2026, at 8:00 PM ET before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026 — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that a new AI safety agreement between the governments of the United States and China has been formally announced after September 16, 2026, at 8:00 PM ET before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026 — 5¢ Kalshi $747 (weight 46%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-20T20:20:50.461Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "24% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/uschinaaisafety-27 Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20it%20be%20reported%20by%20any%20of%20the%20Source%20Agencies%20that%20a%20new%20AI%20safety%20agreement%20between%20the%20governments%20of%20the%20United%20States%20and%20China%20has%20been%20formally%20announced%20after%20September%2016%2C%202026%2C%20at%208%3A00%20PM%20ET%20before%20Oct%201%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev