34% — Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by April 30?: ↓ 1.4M
Polymarket 34% · 20 contracts · $37 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-17 16:52:14 UTC

Contracts:
- Will USD/JPY hit __ in 2026?: ↓130 — 13¢ Polymarket $27 (weight 73%)
- Will USD/JPY hit __ in 2026?: ↑170 — 28¢ Polymarket $10 (weight 27%)
- Will USD/JPY hit __ in 2026?: ↓120 — 16¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Will USD/JPY hit __ in 2026?: ↓150 — 55¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Will USD/KRW hit __ in 2026?: ↑1600 — 46¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Will USD/KRW hit __ in 2026?: ↓1000 — 12¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Will GBP/USD hit __ in 2026?: ↑1.40 — 42¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Will EUR/USD hit __ in 2026?: ↑ 1.35 — 9¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 12 more

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-17T16:20:21.327Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "34% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/usd-hit-iranian-rials-april-30
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20USD%20hit%20___%20Iranian%20rials%20by%20April%2030%3F%3A%20%E2%86%93%201.4M
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev