40% — Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by May 31?: ↓ 1.5M
Leader: ↓ 1.7M at 40% · Polymarket 40% · 3 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 04:32:54 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by May 31?: ↓ 1.7M — 40¢ Polymarket $340 (weight 28%)
- Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by May 31?: ↓ 1.6M — 4¢ Polymarket $701 (weight 58%)
- Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by May 31?: ↑ 1.9M — 3¢ Polymarket $162 (weight 13%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-03T01:20:13.233Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "40% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/usd-hit-iranian-rials-may-31
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20USD%20hit%20___%20Iranian%20rials%20by%20May%2031%3F%3A%20%E2%86%93%201.5M
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev