50% — Will USD/KRW hit __ in 2026?: ↑1800
Leader: ↓1400 at 50% · Polymarket 50% · 11 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-17 19:05:21 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 11 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 62% chance that USD/KRW will reach 1,800 Korean won per U.S. dollar at some point during 2026. The current won valuation relative to the dollar, combined with expectations around interest rate differentials and economic growth between the U.S. and South Korea, appears to be the primary driver of this probability. A weaker won or stronger dollar would move the market higher; stronger Korean economic data or Federal Reserve rate cuts could push it lower. The resolution hinges on actual spot rates throughout 2026, with particular sensitivity to quarterly GDP releases, central bank policy announcements from both the Fed and Bank of Korea, and any geopolitical shifts affecting capital flows to emerging markets.

Key factors:
- Current USD/KRW spot rate versus 1,800 level—the starting point determines how much movement is required
- Interest rate differential between Federal Reserve policy and Bank of Korea rates, which directly influences currency carry trade positioning
- Economic growth expectations for the U.S. versus South Korea in 2026, affecting relative demand for each currency
- Capital flow trends into or out of Korean assets, including equity and bond market activity
- Historical volatility bands for USD/KRW over similar time windows to assess whether 1,800 lies within or outside typical ranges

Contracts:
- Will USD/KRW hit __ in 2026?: ↓1400 — 50¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 9%)
- Will USD/KRW hit __ in 2026?: ↑1600 — 45¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 9%)
- Will USD/KRW hit __ in 2026?: ↓1350 — 42¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 9%)
- Will USD/KRW hit __ in 2026?: ↓1200 — 39¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 9%)
- Will USD/KRW hit __ in 2026?: ↓1300 — 36¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 9%)
- Will USD/KRW hit __ in 2026?: ↓1100 — 32¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 9%)
- Will USD/KRW hit __ in 2026?: ↑1650 — 27¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 9%)
- Will USD/KRW hit __ in 2026?: ↓1000 — 12¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 9%)
- ... and 3 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-17T18:20:19.497Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "50% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/usdkrw-hit
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20USD%2FKRW%20hit%20__%20in%202026%3F%3A%20%E2%86%911800
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev