18% — Will the price of the USDX be above 105 by Jun 30, 2026
Leader: Above 102 at 18% · Kalshi 18% · 2 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 14:00:34 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Markets are pricing a 79% chance the US Dollar Index closes above 100 by June 30, 2026, but only a 3% chance it rises above 105 during that period. The steep probability cliff between these levels suggests traders expect the USDX to remain in a narrow range near current levels rather than make a sharp directional move in either direction. The probability is driven primarily by Fed policy expectations and global economic growth differentials. With about four weeks until resolution, upcoming inflation data, Fed communications, and international central bank decisions will be the main factors determining whether dollar strength persists or reverses. The current pricing reflects consensus that near-term dollar stability is likely, but a significant rally beyond 105 is viewed as unlikely without a major shift in monetary policy or economic conditions.

Key factors:
- The USDX is currently near 105; the 79% probability for 'above 100' reflects confidence the dollar stays within a historically normal range rather than weakness below parity
- Contract prices show extreme confidence clustering: 59¢ for above-100 versus 3¢ for above-105 indicates traders expect very little upward movement from current levels in 27 days
- Only $124 in 24-hour volume on the above-105 contract suggests limited disagreement—most market participants see a sharp rally as improbable
- Fed rate expectations and US Treasury yield differentials relative to other G10 currencies are the primary drivers of dollar direction over this short timeframe
- Resolution depends on near-term data: CPI reports, PCE inflation readings, and any Fed guidance adjustments before June 30 are the most likely catalysts for significant probability shifts

Contracts:
- Will the price of the USDX be above 102 by Jun 30, 2026?: Above 102 — 18¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 50%)
- Will the price of the USDX be above 103 by Jun 30, 2026?: Above 103 — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 50%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T13:20:49.599Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "18% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/usdm
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20price%20of%20the%20USDX%20be%20above%20105%20by%20Jun%2030%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev