5% — Will USD/MXN be above 19 by month-end
Kalshi 5% · 1 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 14:03:55 UTC

Why this matters:
Markets are pricing a 73% chance that USD/MXN closes June 2026 above 17.75, with only a 5% probability it reaches 19. The Mexican peso's strength or weakness against the dollar depends primarily on relative interest-rate differentials between the Federal Reserve and Banco de México, trade dynamics, and capital flows responding to economic data from both countries. The gap between the 17.75 level (favored) and 19 level (low probability) suggests traders expect peso stability rather than sharp dollar appreciation. Key drivers include U.S. inflation reports that could influence Fed policy, Mexican employment and inflation data affecting central bank expectations, and any shifts in trade or geopolitical risk premiums. The most significant uncertainty resolves through late-month economic releases and any surprise policy signals from either central bank.

Key factors:
- Relative interest rate expectations: higher U.S. rates favor dollar strength, while elevated Mexican rates support the peso
- Trade flows and tariff environment: changes to U.S.-Mexico trade policy directly affect currency demand
- Capital flow direction: portfolio rebalancing between U.S. and Mexican assets based on perceived risk and returns
- Economic data releases: June inflation, employment, and manufacturing data from both countries will influence expectations
- Central bank communication: policy signals from the Fed or Banco de México about future rate paths

Contracts:
- Will USD/MXN be above 17.75 by month-end?: 17.75 or above — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T13:20:49.250Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "5% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/usdmexmax
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20USD%2FMXN%20be%20above%2019%20by%20month-end
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev