85% — Will percentage of USDT reserves held in U.S. Treasury Bills at the end of 2026 be above 56.0%
Leader: Above 56.0% at 85% · Kalshi 85% · 7 contracts · $11 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:21:41 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market tracks whether Tether (USDT) will hold more than 56% of its reserves in U.S. Treasury Bills by the end of 2026. The 85% probability reflects market confidence this threshold will be exceeded. The current level is driven by Tether's ongoing shift toward higher-quality collateral following regulatory pressure and competitive dynamics with other stablecoins. The main uncertainty centers on how aggressively Tether's management maintains Treasury allocation versus other reserve types, and whether regulatory changes affect their reserve strategy. The resolution will depend on Tether's officially reported reserve composition released at year-end 2026, which constitutes the decisive catalyst for settling this contract. Market participants are essentially pricing in continued Treasury preference as Tether responds to institutional and regulatory expectations around stablecoin backing.

Key factors:
- Tether's current publicly reported Treasury allocation and historical trend toward increasing this percentage
- Regulatory developments affecting stablecoin reserve requirements or acceptable collateral types through 2026
- Competitive pressure from other stablecoins like USDC, which may influence Tether's reserve composition strategy
- Interest rate environment and yields on Treasury Bills versus alternative reserve assets Tether might hold
- Tether's official year-end 2026 reserve attestation report, which will provide the definitive measurement for contract resolution

Contracts:
- Will percentage of USDT reserves held in U.S. Treasury Bills at the end of 2026 be above 56.0%?: Above 56.0% — 85¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will percentage of USDT reserves held in U.S. Treasury Bills at the end of 2026 be above 58.0%?: Above 58.0% — 76¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 100%)
- Will percentage of USDT reserves held in U.S. Treasury Bills at the end of 2026 be above 60.0%?: Above 60.0% — 66¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will percentage of USDT reserves held in U.S. Treasury Bills at the end of 2026 be above 62.0%?: Above 62.0% — 41¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will percentage of USDT reserves held in U.S. Treasury Bills at the end of 2026 be above 64.0%?: Above 64.0% — 23¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will percentage of USDT reserves held in U.S. Treasury Bills at the end of 2026 be above 70.0%?: Above 70.0% — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will percentage of USDT reserves held in U.S. Treasury Bills at the end of 2026 be above 66.0%?: Above 66.0% — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

Cite as: "85% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/usdttbill
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20percentage%20of%20USDT%20reserves%20held%20in%20U.S.%20Treasury%20Bills%20at%20the%20end%20of%202026%20be%20above%2056.0%25
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev