73% — Will the price of the USDX be above 101 by Dec 31, 2026
Leader: Above 102 at 73% · Kalshi 73% · 4 contracts · $7 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 11:28:30 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract asks whether the US Dollar Index will close above 101 on December 31, 2026. At 62% probability, the market implies this outcome is somewhat more likely than not. The USDX reflects the dollar's value against a basket of major currencies. Upward pressure on the index typically comes from higher US interest rates or economic outperformance, while downward pressure results from Fed rate cuts or relative weakness in US growth. The path to resolution depends heavily on Federal Reserve policy decisions throughout 2026, as interest rate expectations are the primary driver of currency valuations. The next major catalyst will be Fed meetings and inflation data releases over the coming months, which will signal the likely trajectory of rates through year-end. Current oil price volatility, reflected in the related contracts, can also influence USD strength through energy-linked economic dynamics.

Key factors:
- Federal Reserve interest rate policy and forward guidance announcements between now and December 2026 will be the primary determinant of dollar strength
- Current USDX level relative to 101 and the cumulative movement required over 7 months to reach or exceed that threshold
- Relative economic growth and inflation data in the US versus other major economies, which drive comparative currency valuations
- Geopolitical developments and capital flows that affect risk appetite and safe-haven demand for US dollars
- Market positioning and technical levels in USDX futures, which can create self-reinforcing momentum in either direction

Contracts:
- Will the price of the USDX be above 102 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above 102 — 73¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the price of the USDX be above 104 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above 104 — 58¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 100%)
- Will the price of the USDX be above 103 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above 103 — 53¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the price of the USDX be above 105 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above 105 — 34¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T11:20:51.220Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "73% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/usdx
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20price%20of%20the%20USDX%20be%20above%20101%20by%20Dec%2031%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev