16% — Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 330ㅤ
Kalshi 39% · 4 contracts · $853 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-03 16:58:01 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that U.S. gasoline prices averaged above 350 cents per gallon in April 2026. The 84% probability suggests traders view above-350 prices as likely, with a notable gap to the 17% probability for above-360 and 5% for above-365, indicating uncertainty about how much higher prices could reach. Prices at this level would reflect continued global supply constraints or demand pressures. The resolution depends on official EIA data release, typically available mid-May, which will report April's actual city average. Key drivers include crude oil prices during April, refinery utilization rates, seasonal demand patterns, and any geopolitical or supply disruptions that occurred during the measurement period. The market's high confidence in exceeding 350 cents suggests either recent price momentum or expectations of sustained tightness, though the sharp probability drop at higher thresholds indicates skepticism about extreme levels.

Key factors:
- EIA will release April 2026 gasoline city average data in mid-May, resolving the contract with official government statistics
- The probability decline from 84% (above 350¢) to 17% (above 360¢) indicates traders expect the final average in the 350-360¢ range rather than significantly higher
- Crude oil prices and refinery capacity utilization during April 2026 are the primary factors determining whether the actual average exceeds 350¢
- Seasonal spring demand increases and any supply disruptions or geopolitical events during April would push averages higher, while demand weakness or increased supply would push lower
- The contract structure shows three tied price thresholds (350, 360, 365¢), with the winner-take-all format creating winner determined by which range the actual April average falls within

Contracts:
- Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 365ㅤ?: Above 365ㅤ — 4¢ Kalshi $777 (weight 54%)
- Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 360ㅤ?: Above 360ㅤ — 17¢ Kalshi $76 (weight 35%)
- Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 350ㅤ?: Above 350ㅤ — 84¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%)
- Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 355ㅤ?: Above 355ㅤ — 50¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%)

Cite as: "16% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/usgascpi
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Gasoline%20(All%20Types)%20in%20U.S.%20City%20Average%20for%20April%202026%20be%20above%20330%E3%85%A4
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev