37% — US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30
Kalshi 40% · Polymarket 30% · 9 contracts · $456K volume · high confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 06:12:09 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 10pp (Kalshi higher)

Why this matters:
The 36% probability reflects market expectations that the US and Iran will reach a new nuclear agreement by April 30, 2026—now just over one week away. The sharp decline in Kalshi's "before June" contract (4¢) compared to longer-dated agreements suggests most traders expect negotiations to either conclude quickly or stall past the April deadline. Market pricing is driven by the current state of diplomatic talks and stated timelines from negotiating parties. The single biggest catalyst is whether an agreement text is finalized and announced before April 30; if talks extend into May or later, this contract would likely resolve negatively, with probability shifting to the June 30 or 2027 contracts currently priced higher. The 10-percentage-point gap between venues may reflect different assessments of diplomatic momentum or data freshness across platforms.

Key factors:
- Kalshi's April 30 contract at 4¢ (representing ~4% probability) versus the 36% aggregate for the same event indicates significant disagreement or volume concentration
- The June 30 contract across venues averages around 25%, suggesting traders believe any deal is more likely in May-June than in the remaining April window
- Polymarket consistently prices deals lower than Kalshi across comparable timeframes, a systematic 10pp gap that may reflect different trader bases or information sets
- The current date is May 23, 2026—only 7 days remain until the April 30 resolution date, making the 36% probability a near-term test of active negotiations
- No announced agreement has been reported as of May 23, while the longest-dated contracts (2027) trade at 50-58%, indicating baseline belief that deals are possible but not imminent

Contracts:
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? — 19¢ Polymarket $336K (weight 74%)
- Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before July — 9¢ Kalshi $86K (weight 19%)
- US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? — 69¢ Polymarket $27K (weight 6%)
- Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before 2027 — 48¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 1%)
- Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before September — 25¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 1%)
- Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal before August?: Before August — 18¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 0%)
- Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before 2028 — 67¢ Kalshi $217 (weight 0%)
- Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Jan 20, 2029 — 74¢ Kalshi $19 (weight 0%)
- ... and 1 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:12.012Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "37% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/usiran-nuclear-deal-april-30
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=US-Iran%20nuclear%20deal%20by%20April%2030
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev