31% — US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30
Leader: Before Jan 20, 2029 at 31% · Kalshi 31% · 3 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-21 15:24:57 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This reflects traders' assessment that a new US-Iran nuclear agreement is unlikely before April 2027, with only a 29% chance assigned to a deal by January 2029. The low probability reflects the substantial political distance between the parties: Iran's uranium enrichment has continued beyond JCPOA limits, US sanctions remain in place, and domestic political opposition in both countries constrains negotiating room. Key catalysts include changes in US administration policy (the 2024 election shapes near-term willingness to engage), Iranian domestic political transitions, and any major escalation in regional tensions. The timeframe breakdown shows traders see the most realistic window after January 2027 rather than before year-end 2026, suggesting expectations of continued diplomatic stalemate through 2026 followed by potential openness to negotiations in 2027-2028.

Key factors:
- Current US administration's stated positions on Iran negotiations and sanctions policy as of late 2026
- Iran's uranium enrichment levels and compliance with prior agreement frameworks
- Upcoming Iranian elections or leadership transitions that could shift Tehran's negotiating posture
- Regional military escalations or de-escalations that alter negotiation incentives for both parties
- Changes in European or allied positions on sanctions that could pressure US negotiating constraints

Contracts:
- Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Jan 20, 2029 — 31¢ Kalshi $83 (weight 3%)
- Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Jan 1, 2028 — 22¢ Kalshi $233 (weight 8%)
- Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 7¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 89%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-21T15:20:49.997Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "31% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/usiran-nuclear-deal-april-30
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=US-Iran%20nuclear%20deal%20by%20April%2030
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev