97% — Will the full text of the June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding be released in the world before Jun 17, 2026
Leader: Before Jun 20, 2026 at 97% · Kalshi 97% · 2 contracts · $195K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-25 18:21:43 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Markets assign an 81% probability that the full text of a US-Iran memorandum of understanding signed in June 2026 will be publicly released by July 1, 2026. The probability reflects expectations that official statements will include substantial details within two weeks of signing, though markets price only a 25% chance of release by tomorrow (June 17). The timing contracts suggest uncertainty about whether immediate full disclosure occurs versus a phased release. Key drivers include standard diplomatic disclosure practices, potential congressional pressure for transparency, and whether confidential negotiation details remain classified. The June 19-20 window shows elevated trading volume, indicating market participants view those dates as realistic disclosure targets. Resolution depends on whether governments publish complete memorandum text versus summaries, and whether classified sections delay full public access.

Key factors:
- Current contract pricing shows 76% probability of release by June 20, but only 35% by June 19, indicating concentrated expected disclosure timing
- Trading volume peaks at the June 20 contract ($1,552 in 24h volume) relative to other timeframes, suggesting this is viewed as most probable release window
- Full-text release faces potential delays if portions require security review or remain subject to confidentiality agreements between nations
- Historical precedent for US-Iran agreements shows mixed patterns: some details released immediately while classified annexes remain restricted for years
- The narrow timeframe between signing (June 2026) and July 1 deadline compresses the typical executive review and approval timeline for public disclosure

Contracts:
- Will the full text of the June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding be released in the world before Jun 20, 2026?: Before Jun 20, 2026 — 97¢ Kalshi $31K (weight 16%)
- Will the full text of the June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding be released in the world before Jun 19, 2026?: Before Jun 19, 2026 — 96¢ Kalshi $163K (weight 84%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T13:20:20.371Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/usiranmou
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20full%20text%20of%20the%20June%202026%20US-Iran%20memorandum%20of%20understanding%20be%20released%20in%20the%20world%20before%20Jun%2017%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev