92% — Will US Michigan consumer sentiment prel for May 2026 be above 46.0
Leader: Above 42.0 at 92% · Kalshi 92% · 10 contracts · $4K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-29 00:20:18 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 10 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market assesses whether Michigan consumer sentiment will exceed 46.0 in the May 2026 preliminary reading, currently priced at 92% probability. The high probability reflects expectation that sentiment will remain above this threshold, suggesting relatively stable or positive economic conditions in the state. Key drivers include actual economic data releases—particularly the University of Michigan's Preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index scheduled for late May, which measures household confidence in current and future economic conditions. Movement would depend on intervening labor market reports, inflation data, and broader economic signals before that release. Michigan's sentiment closely tracks national trends but reflects state-specific factors like auto industry performance and regional employment. A reading below 46.0 would require a notable deterioration in either consumer expectations or current economic assessments during the survey period.

Key factors:
- The University of Michigan Preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index for May 2026 is the direct resolution metric, scheduled for late May release
- Recent readings must show the index sustained above 46.0, requiring baseline sentiment conditions not to deteriorate materially from prior months
- Labor market data and employment reports released in May will influence household economic confidence before the sentiment survey closes
- Consumer inflation expectations and gasoline prices during the survey period typically correlate with sentiment shifts
- Michigan's auto sector employment and regional economic conditions may diverge from national trends, affecting state-specific sentiment measures

Contracts:
- Will US Michigan consumer sentiment prel for June 2026 be above 42.0?: Above 42.0 — 92¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will US Michigan consumer sentiment prel for June 2026 be above 43.0?: Above 43.0 — 85¢ Kalshi $153 (weight 4%)
- Will US Michigan consumer sentiment prel for June 2026 be above 44.0?: Above 44.0 — 77¢ Kalshi $542 (weight 14%)
- Will US Michigan consumer sentiment prel for June 2026 be above 46.0?: Above 46.0 — 46¢ Kalshi $177 (weight 5%)
- Will US Michigan consumer sentiment prel for June 2026 be above 48.0?: Above 48.0 — 27¢ Kalshi $991 (weight 25%)
- Will US Michigan consumer sentiment prel for June 2026 be above 45.0?: Above 45.0 — 17¢ Kalshi $728 (weight 19%)
- Will US Michigan consumer sentiment prel for June 2026 be above 49.0?: Above 49.0 — 12¢ Kalshi $572 (weight 15%)
- Will US Michigan consumer sentiment prel for June 2026 be above 50.0?: Above 50.0 — 8¢ Kalshi $40 (weight 1%)
- ... and 2 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-13T13:20:50.695Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "92% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/usmichcsp
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20US%20Michigan%20consumer%20sentiment%20prel%20for%20May%202026%20be%20above%2046.0
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev