60% — Will the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for April 2026 be above 3.4%
Leader: Above 5.7% at 60% · Kalshi 60% · 15 contracts · $623 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 13:12:55 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 15 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contracts tracks whether the U.S. Producer Price Index for final demand in April 2026 will exceed 3.4% year-over-year. An 88% probability indicates markets view inflation at this stage as likely to remain above this threshold. The current reading reflects broader expectations about commodity prices, labor costs, and supply-chain conditions through spring 2026. Key drivers include oil and energy prices, which heavily influence PPI, and whether wage pressures persist in transportation and manufacturing sectors. The April PPI data release, scheduled for early May, will definitively resolve this contract. Markets are currently pricing in a high likelihood that deflation pressures remain limited and input costs stay elevated relative to the 3.4% benchmark, though recent months' trends and Federal Reserve policy trajectory will influence final outcomes.

Key factors:
- April 2026 PPI release date and actual headline number relative to 3.4% year-over-year threshold
- Energy and crude oil price movements during the April measurement period
- Wage growth trends in goods-producing sectors affecting production costs
- Fed policy stance and interest rate expectations as of April, impacting cost-of-capital components
- Supply-chain disruption or normalization patterns reflected in transportation and material input costs

Contracts:
- Will the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for June 2026 be above 5.7%?: Above 5.7% — 60¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for June 2026 be above 5.9%?: Above 5.9% — 30¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 0%)
- Will the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for June 2026 be above 6.0%?: Above 6.0% — 27¢ Kalshi $81 (weight 13%)
- Will the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for June 2026 be above 5.8%?: Above 5.8% — 26¢ Kalshi $279 (weight 45%)
- Will the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for June 2026 be above 6.1%?: Above 6.1% — 23¢ Kalshi $37 (weight 6%)
- Will the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for June 2026 be above 5.6%?: Above 5.6% — 22¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for June 2026 be above 6.6%?: Above 6.6% — 15¢ Kalshi $94 (weight 15%)
- Will the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for June 2026 be above 6.2%?: Above 6.2% — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 7 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T12:20:50.627Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "60% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/usppiyoy
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20United%20States%20Producer%20Price%20Index%20for%20final%20demand%20for%20April%202026%20be%20above%203.4%25
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev