74% — Will United States retail sales MoM for March 2026 be above 0.8%
Leader: Above 0.0% at 74% · Kalshi 74% · 7 contracts · $30 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 10:35:59 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This represents a 72% probability that U.S. retail sales will increase month-over-month by at least 0.0% in June 2026. The current assessment reflects expectations that retail activity will show positive or flat growth, though the significant drop-off in contract prices at higher thresholds (59% at +0.2%, 28% at +0.6%) indicates substantial uncertainty about the magnitude. The probability is primarily driven by seasonal patterns in consumer spending and recent economic conditions. The key driver is the June retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau, typically released in early August, which will provide definitive data on actual month-over-month change and resolve this market.

Key factors:
- Seasonal strength in June typically supports positive retail sales growth before the summer slowdown
- Recent Consumer Price Index and wage growth trends directly influence consumer purchasing power and spending patterns
- The contract price structure shows markets assign only 3% probability to growth exceeding 1.2%, suggesting consensus expects modest gains rather than strong expansion
- June 2026 month-over-month comparisons depend on June 2025 baseline levels and any calendar-specific retail events
- The Census Bureau's August retail sales release will provide the actual data point determining whether outcomes above 0.0%, 0.2%, 0.4%, 0.6%, and 1.2% are met

Contracts:
- Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 0.0%?: Above 0.0% — 74¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 33%)
- Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 0.2%?: Above 0.2% — 62¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 0.4%?: Above 0.4% — 45¢ Kalshi $20 (weight 67%)
- Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 0.6%?: Above 0.6% — 30¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 0.8%?: Above 0.8% — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 1.0%?: Above 1.0% — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above 1.2%?: Above 1.2% — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T10:20:50.414Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "74% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/usretail
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20United%20States%20retail%20sales%20MoM%20for%20March%202026%20be%20above%200.8%25
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev