90% — Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.44% on Jul 13, 2026
Leader: 4.5% or above at 90% · Kalshi 90% · 4 contracts · $298 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-14 08:33:34 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects traders' assessment that the 10-year Treasury yield will exceed 4.44% on July 13, 2026—just two days away. The 97% price suggests markets view this outcome as highly likely, with implied volatility suggesting minimal expected movement from current levels. The main drivers are inflation expectations, Federal Reserve policy signals, and recent economic data that influence bond yields. The outcome will be determined by the Treasury yield's closing level on July 13, with any significant economic announcements or Fed communications between now and then potentially affecting the rate. The contract structure shows traders see declining probability for higher yield thresholds (4.54%, 4.59%, 4.64%), indicating limited appetite for substantial upside movement despite the near-certain baseline outcome.

Key factors:
- 10Y Treasury yield must close above 4.44% on July 13, 2026; current pricing implies minimal expected depreciation or appreciation over 2 days
- Market volume is concentrated in the 4.45%+ contract (97¢) with essentially zero 24h volume, suggesting limited recent trading activity and potential pricing staleness
- The contract ladder shows stepwise probability decline (96% at 4.50%, 60% at 4.55%, 41% at 4.60%), indicating asymmetric downside risk rather than upside
- Economic data releases scheduled between July 11-13 (if any) or unexpected Fed communications could trigger yield volatility
- Current 2-day timeframe minimizes time-decay effects but maximizes sensitivity to intraday Treasury market movements and corporate earnings announcements

Contracts:
- Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.49% on Jul 13, 2026?: 4.5% or above — 90¢ Kalshi $206 (weight 69%)
- Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.54% on Jul 13, 2026?: 4.55% or above — 34¢ Kalshi $69 (weight 23%)
- Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.59% on Jul 13, 2026?: 4.6% or above — 26¢ Kalshi $23 (weight 8%)
- Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.64% on Jul 13, 2026?: 4.65% or above — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-13T19:20:51.603Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "90% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ust10ad
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%2010Y%20U.S.%20Treasury%20yield%20be%20above%204.44%25%20on%20Jul%2013%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev