97% — Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.64% on Jul 31, 2026 Leader: 4.4% or above at 97% · Kalshi 97% · 9 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-21 16:50:21 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 9 outcomes. Why this matters: This market reflects a 96% probability that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will exceed 4.64% by July 31, 2026—roughly three weeks away. The current 10Y yield sits near this level, so the market is pricing a high likelihood it stays at or rises above this threshold. Treasury yields are driven by expectations for Federal Reserve policy, inflation data, and broader economic growth; if markets begin pricing in sustained rate cuts or economic slowdown, yields could fall below the 4.64% mark. The most significant catalyst is the monthly employment report (typically released the first Friday after month-end), which could shift expectations around Fed rate trajectories. Other scheduled data releases including inflation figures and consumer confidence could also move yields materially in either direction during this window. Key factors: - Current 10Y yield is trading near 4.64%, requiring only a modest move upward or stability to resolve YES - Kalshi's related contracts show declining probabilities at higher yield thresholds (36¢ at 4.54%, 14¢ at 4.64%), indicating conviction that higher yields are less likely - The July employment report (first Friday in August) will arrive after this contract expires, removing one major source of immediate uncertainty - Any shift in Fed rate-cut expectations or inflation data released before July 31 could materially move the 10Y yield - The short 23-day window limits the time available for large yield movements compared to longer-dated predictions Contracts: - Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.39% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.4% or above — 97¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.49% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.5% or above — 94¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 0%) - Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.44% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.45% or above — 94¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.54% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.55% or above — 77¢ Kalshi $51 (weight 3%) - Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.59% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.6% or above — 56¢ Kalshi $981 (weight 49%) - Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.64% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.65% or above — 40¢ Kalshi $259 (weight 13%) - Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.69% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.7% or above — 19¢ Kalshi $424 (weight 21%) - Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.74% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.75% or above — 6¢ Kalshi $285 (weight 14%) - ... and 1 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-30T01:20:51.678Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ust10am Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%2010Y%20U.S.%20Treasury%20yield%20be%20above%204.64%25%20on%20Jul%2031%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev