7% — Will 10Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.45%
Kalshi 7% · 1 contracts · $6 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 10:31:48 UTC

Why this matters:
Markets are pricing a 59% chance that the 10-year US Treasury yield closes June 2026 above 4.45%, implying traders expect moderately elevated rates. The probability reflects expectations around Federal Reserve policy trajectories, inflation data, and broader economic growth forecasts. Movements in this contract would likely follow monthly employment reports, inflation readings (CPI/PPI), and any Fed communications about interest rate plans. The June jobs report and PCE inflation data—due mid-month—typically drive significant rate repricing. If economic data signals persistent inflation or Fed hawkishness, yields could move higher; conversely, signs of cooling growth or moderating prices could push yields lower and reduce the probability. The contract settles on the last trading day of June based on month-end yields, so late-month economic data and Fed speakers could shift positioning into month-end.

Key factors:
- Monthly CPI and PCE inflation reports (due mid-June) will directly influence expectations for Fed rate decisions and long-term inflation expectations, which drive 10Y yields
- Employment data (June jobs report) indicating labor-market strength or weakness affects growth expectations and Fed policy outlook
- Current spread between the 4.45% and 4.70% contracts (59¢ vs 15¢) suggests traders see tail risk of significantly higher yields but expect yields more likely to stay below 4.70%
- Any unscheduled Fed communications or geopolitical events in the final week of June could cause rapid repricing as the settlement date approaches
- The 4.50% contract at parity (50¢) indicates near-even odds around that threshold, suggesting 4.45–4.50% is the market's expected trading range

Contracts:
- Will 10Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.45%?: Above 4.45% — 7¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T10:20:48.726Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "7% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ust10m
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%2010Y%20US%20Treasury%20Yield%20for%20month-end%20be%20above%204.45%25
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev