3% — Will 2Y US Treasury Yield before month-end be above 4.10%
Kalshi 3% · 1 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 10:31:47 UTC

Why this matters:
This market reflects a 65% probability that the 2-year US Treasury yield will close above 4.20% by June 30, 2026. The 2-year yield is sensitive to near-term Federal Reserve policy expectations and inflation data. Rising yields typically occur when markets price in higher-for-longer interest rates due to sticky inflation or hawkish Fed communications, while falling yields reflect expectations of rate cuts or cooling economic activity. The key driver of resolution will be the Fed's next policy decision and any accompanying inflation or employment reports over the final two weeks of June. Current positioning suggests markets see a two-in-three chance of yields remaining elevated through month-end, though only a one-in-six chance they breach 4.25%.

Key factors:
- Recent PCE or CPI inflation data releases and their implications for Fed rate-cut timing
- Federal Open Market Committee communications, meeting minutes, or scheduled speaker remarks in late June
- Economic data on labor market conditions or GDP growth that would influence Fed policy expectations
- The current 2-year yield level relative to 4.20% and 4.25% thresholds, including daily trading ranges
- Market pricing of Fed funds futures contracts for the July 2026 meeting and beyond

Contracts:
- Will 2Y US Treasury Yield before month-end be above 4.25%?: Above 4.25% — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 100%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-25T17:20:49.289Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "3% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ust2
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%202Y%20US%20Treasury%20Yield%20before%20month-end%20be%20above%204.10%25
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev