60% — Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.19% on Jul 6, 2026
Kalshi 60% · 1 contracts · $4 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-07-12 23:03:46 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability indicates a 64% chance the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield will exceed 4.19% by July 6, 2026. The current pricing reflects market expectations about Federal Reserve policy and inflation dynamics over the next two days. The primary drivers are recent economic data releases and Fed communications—stronger inflation readings or hawkish Fed signals would push yields higher, while softer economic data could lower them. The key catalyst is any scheduled economic announcements or Fed speakers between now and the July 6 close. With only two days until settlement, market pricing typically tightens substantially as concrete data emerges, leaving limited time for major directional shifts unless unexpected economic news surfaces.

Key factors:
- Current 2Y yield level and trajectory: the contract prices suggest the market is pricing the yield near or slightly below 4.19%, with the cheapest contract at 3¢ indicating extreme skepticism of an above-4.20% close
- Volatility concentration: the highest volume contract ($29 24h) targets only 4.14%, suggesting traders see the probability of yields remaining below 4.19% as substantial
- Two-day settlement window: with resolution in 48 hours, the market has minimal time to price in new information—only scheduled data releases or Fed communications would materially move the needle
- Fed communications risk: any unscheduled Fed speaker commentary or policy signals between July 4-6 could shift rate expectations
- Market consensus on monetary policy: the ladder of contracts (3.99% to 4.19%) maps incremental confidence levels, with declining prices at higher thresholds indicating diminishing conviction

Contracts:
- Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 3.94% on Jul 10, 2026?: 3.95% or above — 60¢ Kalshi $4 (weight 100%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-07-10T07:20:51.489Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "60% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ust2a
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%202Y%20U.S.%20Treasury%20yield%20be%20above%204.19%25%20on%20Jul%206%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev