97% — Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.29% on Jul 13, 2026
Leader: 4.1% or above at 97% · Kalshi 97% · 4 contracts · $243 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-14 08:33:33 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market is pricing a 96% probability that the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield will close above 4.09% on July 13, 2026—tomorrow. The steep decline in contract prices as thresholds rise (from 96¢ at 4.09% to just 4¢ at 4.29%) indicates traders expect the yield to stay in a narrow range slightly above 4.09%, with very low odds of reaching 4.29% or higher. The current level reflects recent Federal Reserve communications, inflation data, and market expectations for short-term rates. Any significant overnight economic data, Fed commentary, or unexpected market moves could shift the yield materially. The resolution depends entirely on where the 2-year yield settles at market close tomorrow, making this a near-term event with minimal time for new information to emerge.

Key factors:
- Current 2Y yield level relative to 4.09% threshold: closer observation of intraday moves and overnight futures trading suggests where market-close positioning will land
- Recent Fed communications and rate expectations: any signals about future policy moves could shift near-term yield trajectories
- Overnight international markets and global rate movements: activity in Asian and European fixed-income markets can influence opening levels on U.S. markets
- Incoming U.S. economic data or central bank statements between now and market close: inflation, employment, or policy signals would be the primary catalyst for yield movement
- Volume concentration in 4.09%–4.14% contracts vs. extreme thinness at 4.29%: suggests consensus cluster rather than true tail-risk pricing

Contracts:
- Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.09% on Jul 13, 2026?: 4.1% or above — 97¢ Kalshi $106 (weight 44%)
- Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.14% on Jul 13, 2026?: 4.15% or above — 88¢ Kalshi $116 (weight 48%)
- Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 13, 2026?: 4.25% or above — 24¢ Kalshi $20 (weight 8%)
- Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.29% on Jul 13, 2026?: 4.3% or above — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-13T19:20:51.603Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ust2ad
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%202Y%20U.S.%20Treasury%20yield%20be%20above%204.29%25%20on%20Jul%2013%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev