89% — Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 3.94% on Jul 31, 2026
Leader: 3.95% or above at 89% · Kalshi 89% · 9 contracts · $294 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-09 20:53:41 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 9 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract asks whether the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield will exceed 3.94% by July 31, 2026—roughly three weeks from now. The 97% probability reflects market expectations that yields will remain above this threshold through month-end. The 2-year yield moves primarily on Federal Reserve policy expectations and inflation data. With the Fed's current stance and recent economic reports, markets are pricing in a very high likelihood that Treasury yields stay in their recent trading range or higher. Key incoming catalysts include the July jobs report (scheduled for early August, after resolution) and any inflation readings in the final weeks of July. The contract's tight clustering of other outcome prices—with 83¢ on yields above 3.99%—suggests moderate uncertainty about higher levels, but strong conviction that yields won't fall below 3.94%.

Key factors:
- Current 2-year yields trading near or above 4.0% as of mid-July 2026, making a drop below 3.94% in three weeks less likely absent significant economic deterioration
- Federal Reserve guidance and inflation expectations are the primary drivers; any signals of rate cuts would pressure yields downward, while inflation surprises upward would support higher yields
- The contract shows a sharp drop-off in probability at 3.99% and above levels (83¢), indicating the market sees most risk in a narrow range near current rates rather than a dramatic move in either direction
- Only 3 weeks remain until settlement, limiting the time window for substantial yield shifts from policy or data surprises
- Trading volume remains relatively light on most outcome contracts, suggesting limited institutional hedging or directional positioning

Contracts:
- Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 3.94% on Jul 31, 2026?: 3.95% or above — 89¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 3.99% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4% or above — 87¢ Kalshi $21 (weight 7%)
- Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.04% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.05% or above — 83¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.09% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.1% or above — 83¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.19% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.2% or above — 56¢ Kalshi $155 (weight 53%)
- Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.14% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.15% or above — 56¢ Kalshi $43 (weight 15%)
- Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.25% or above — 34¢ Kalshi $75 (weight 26%)
- Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.29% on Jul 31, 2026?: 4.3% or above — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 1 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-09T20:20:49.462Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "89% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ust2am
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%202Y%20U.S.%20Treasury%20yield%20be%20above%203.94%25%20on%20Jul%2031%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev