4% — Will 30Y US Treasury Yield before month-end be above 5.25%
Leader: Above 5.25% at 4% · Kalshi 4% · 2 contracts · $2K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 21:13:03 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that the 30-year US Treasury yield will exceed 5.25% at some point before May 31, 2026. The 78% probability on the slightly lower 5.20% threshold suggests traders see elevated rates as likely near-term, driven by persistent inflation concerns and Federal Reserve policy expectations. The key tension is whether rates rise further or stabilize around current levels. Treasury yields respond to inflation data, Fed communications, and broader economic data releases through month-end, with any significant economic reports potentially shifting expectations. The spread between the 78% probability at 5.20% and 58% at 5.25% indicates meaningful uncertainty about how much higher yields might climb, suggesting traders see a clear path past 5.20% but less certainty about breaching the higher threshold.

Key factors:
- The 30Y yield was trading in a range where crossing 5.25% required a notable move beyond current market expectations, but not an extreme one
- Monthly CPI and employment data through late May could trigger material yield shifts depending on inflation or labor market signals
- Federal Reserve messaging and dot-plot expectations significantly influence long-duration Treasury pricing and forward rate expectations
- The 52% probability at 5.30% versus 78% at 5.20% reveals a steep probability decline at higher yield levels, indicating market consensus clusters around the 5.20-5.25% band
- Day-to-day volatility in Treasury markets means intraday yield spikes above 5.25% are possible but sustaining that level through month-end carries distinct probability

Contracts:
- Will 30Y US Treasury Yield before month-end be above 5.25%?: Above 5.25% — 4¢ Kalshi $884 (weight 53%)
- Will 30Y US Treasury Yield before month-end be above 5.20%?: Above 5.20% — 3¢ Kalshi $784 (weight 47%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:09.607Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "4% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ust30
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%2030Y%20US%20Treasury%20Yield%20before%20month-end%20be%20above%205.25%25
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev